Each week I will take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel. I will examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team, and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I'm attempting to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup but I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide and you will have multiple options which will help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
Cam Newton ($9,300) + Kelvin Benjamin ($7,700) = $17,000
The Panthers travel to Atlanta on Sunday in an NFC South matchup featuring two high scoring teams. The Panthers are getting the Falcons at the right time as the Falcons have allowed 10 touchdowns via the pass through three games and are very generous to opposing receivers and tight ends.
Benjamin was shut out last week with zero catches and was only targeted one time in the game, but Minnesota’s defense can take even the best teams and get them out of sorts. I’m expecting a healthy bounce back game this week in the Georgia Dome for Newton and Benjamin and the rest of the Panthers offense.
Carolina has an implied total of 26.5 points and they are favored by 3 points on the road, and Vegas likes this game to be high scoring with a total of 50. The Falcons will deploy a defensive plan to limit Benjamin but his size and ability to “post up” defensive backs make him unstoppable at times. The Panthers will move the ball easily enough in this game and that should give Benjamin plenty of opportunity.
The Falcons are 29th in the NFL against the pass, and they struggle to bring enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks, registering only three sacks this season. Newton should have time to pick apart the Falcons secondary, making Benjamin a top-notch play this week.
Andrew Luck ($8,900) + T.Y. Hilton ($7,600) = $16,500
This game is going to be played in London and kicks off at 9:30 AM EST. The Colts and Jaguars game has the making of a high-scoring affair with a total of 49.5 points. I expect both teams to throw the ball all over the place in this game as both offenses are driven by the pass.
Luck has been very good this year stretching the field and hitting targets down the field and he’ll have to do that in this game as I don’t see Indianapolis being able to run the ball on the Jacksonville defense. The Colts offensive line is not built to generate movement in the running game and there isn’t much of a threat in that aspect for them.
The Colts have one of the highest implied totals of the week at 26.5 points, and the Jaguars offense should be able to keep pace with the Colts forcing the Colts to continue to push the ball down the field. Luck has been looking at Hilton on a consistent level, targeting him 12 times in Week 1, 11 times in Week 2 and another 11 times in Week 3.
The Jaguars have given up really nice numbers to quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers in Week 1 and Phillip Rivers in Week 2), but what makes this matchup different is that the Colts defense is easily beatable and the Jaguars offense should push the pace and score enough to keep Luck’s foot on the accelerator. Hilton is a very nice play in this matchup given the consistent level of volume, his role in the offense and the matchup here.
Philip Rivers ($8,500) + Travis Benjamin ($6,600) = $15,100
The Chargers get the Saints at home in Week 4 with a game script that appears to be very favorable for both passing games. The Saints are No. 25 versus the pass and the Chargers are the No. 30 team against the pass, and that means big possibilities for both offenses.
The Chargers have the highest implied total of any team this week at 28.5 points. Vegas likes this game as the highest scoring game of the week with a total of 53 so it is a premium matchup for the passing games for both teams.
The Saints are having a very hard time stopping opposing offenses, and Benjamin gets a great matchup this week. The game script calls for a lot of yardage and points for both passing games, and I like Benjamin to get to work in the short throwing game and generating yards after the catch.
Benjamin target share isn’t huge in this offense, but he doesn’t need giant amounts of volume to be productive. He is extremely quick and can make defenders miss and against this secondary that means big things.
Pivot: Hunter Henry ($4,500) started last week for the injured Antonio Gates and was very effective in the passing game. He caught five passes and totaled 76 yards and looks to be a very nice option again this week. The Saints haven’t been tested by tight ends this year but they will be in this game and Henry is an intriguing value play.
Andy Dalton ($7,600) + A.J. Green ($8,100) = $15,700
Dalton has started the season slowly but he gets a team that is allowing big games to opposing No. 1 wide receivers in 2016. The Dolphins have a very good defensive front, but they have holes in their secondary and are yielding numbers to support playing this pairing.
Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin saw 11 targets in Week 1 and had nine catches for 92 yards and a score. Patriots receiver Julian Edelman saw 10 targets in Week 2 and caught seven passes for 76 yards. Browns receiver Terrelle Pryor saw 14 targets last week and went for eight catches for 144 yards. There’s a trend happening here, and it’s very favorable for Green.
The Bengals have an implied total of 26 and are favored by seven points at home, but what interests me is that the Bengals are getting torched via the pass, surrendering nine touchdowns through the air so far. Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian just shredded this defense for four scores.
From a game script perspective, it looks favorable for Miami and quarterback Ryan Tannehill to generate enough points to keep Dalton feeding targets to Green. Looking at the numbers of big target-share receivers, I’d say that Green is in for a big day.
Green continues to dominate targets in Cincinnati as only five receivers in the NFL have more targets than him through three weeks. The Dolphins have made Baldwin, Edelman and Pryor very fantasy relevant, and that’s a “Green” light to play him this week.
Matthew Stafford ($8,300) + Marvin Jones ($7,600) = $15,900
Stafford is red hot right now and faces a team that he should tear up in Week 4 on the road in Chicago. While the numbers don’t look horrible for the Bears defense, they have come against the Texans, Eagles and Cowboys. The Lions passing offense poses a significantly bigger challenge for the Bears and Stafford should have his way here.
The Lions are a three-point favorite on the road with an implied total of 24.5 points, and the reality is that the Lions are going to struggle to run the ball effectively so Stafford will have to carry this offense again in Week 4.
Jones was only targeted eight times in Week 3 but the majority of those went down the field where he wins. His body control and ability to adjust to the ball in the air are amazing and he’s dominating on the boundary and down the field. Even though he was only targeted eight times, he caught six balls for 205 yards and he scored twice.
This is another matchup with an opposing offense helping to push the players we’re talking about here. The Lions have surrendered 10 touchdowns through the air and Chicago will be able to move the ball on the Lions defense, forcing the Lions to keep throwing.
Pivot: Eric Ebron ($5,800) has had a steady impact on the passing game through three weeks this season. He has improved his ball security and is a weapon in the middle of the field. He is also seeing enough volume (20 targets in three games) in this potent passing attack to warrant consideration in this matchup.
HIGHER RISK STACKS
Brian Hoyer ($6,000) + Kevin White ($5,500) = $11,500
The Bears bring in NFC North rival Detroit to Soldier Field in Week 4 and this matchup has shootout potential. The Lions passing game is clicking on all cylinders right now and that will keep the Bears and Hoyer throwing the ball in this contest.
The Bears have an implied total of 21.5 points, but the Lions defense is incredibly banged up as they are without defensive end Ezekiel Ansah and weak side linebacker DeAndre Levy. These are giant losses and the Lions have been significantly impacted by these losses. They surrendered four touchdowns in the first half in Green Bay last week and simply can’t stop opposing offenses.
The Lions aren’t generating much pressure on opposing quarterbacks and that will continue as long as Ansah and Levy are missing from their lineup. That means that the Lions cornerbacks will be asked to cover wide receivers longer than they are capable of, and that spells very bad things for the Lions defense.
White is a size/speed freak and is a tremendous mismatch for any Lions cornerback other than Darius Slay. The Lions are going to get Slay locked up with Bears receiver Alshon Jeffery which pits White against cornerback Nevin Lawson. Lawson is no match for White physically and this should be a point of emphasis for the Bears and Hoyer.
Hoyer targeted White 14 times in Week 3 (second-most in the NFL) and while they didn’t look completely in sync, there was great opportunity in those targets. White caught six of those passes for 62 yards, but he’ll have the opportunity to easily surpass that production in Week 4.
Joe Flacco ($7,700) + Steve Smith Sr. ($6,100) = $13,800
The Raves bring in the struggling Oakland Raiders in Week 4 and it is a matchup that the Ravens should exploit in a very big way. The Raiders are ranked last in the NFL against the pass and have given up seven scores through the air while having a hard time applying pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
The Raiders defense only has three sacks and they can’t leave Flacco uninterrupted in the pocket without consequences Sunday. If Flacco has enough time to allow for deeper routes to develop, he’ll torch this defense with big plays and that means a big day for Smith.
The Raiders have allowed a league-most 16 passing plays of 20 yards or more and they’ve given up the second most plays of 40+ yards with five, and that’s the strength of Smith’s game. Smith is an aging veteran, but he still has enough juice in his legs to punish defenses with big vertical plays down the field.
Flacco targeted Smith 11 times last week, and Smith has been the most targeted receiver for the Ravens in 2016 with 25 targets over three weeks. Smith doesn’t need that kind of volume to generate tremendous production but if he gets it he could put out fantastic numbers this week.
The Ravens have an applied total of 25 points and are favored by 3.5 points this week but the game script makes this a risky start. If the Ravens get up and Oakland struggles to move the ball and score points, it reduces the volume that the passing game will see as the Raiders are very susceptible against the run.
There is risk and reward here, but there’s enough upside with Flacco and Smith that I like them as a sneaky good GPP play.
Cody Kessler ($6,300) + Terrelle Pryor Sr. ($7,000) = $13,300
The Browns travel to Washington in Week 4 to take on the Redskins in a contest that looks fairly juicy on paper. Vegas has the total at 45.5 points, and the implied total for the Browns is 19 while the Redskins implied number is 26.5 points.
The Redskins are favored by 7.5 points here, and the likeliest game script calls for the Browns passing attack to be a full go playing catch up late in this game. Garbage time points are still points and Kessler and Pryor have an opportunity to do big things against a very banged up secondary.
The Redskins lost starting safety Deangelo Hall to a torn ACL last week. They also lost starting cornerback Bashaud Breeland to a high ankle sprain and that leaves the Redskins scrambling for bodies in the secondary.
Kessler started last week for the Browns and he targeted Pryor 14 times, connecting with him eight times. Pryor has emerged as a go to weapon in the Cleveland offense and he’s also getting a few snaps at the quarterback and running back positions which give him more opportunity to boost his value. Pryor threw five passes last week and also had four carries (21 yards and a score) and when combining that with the kind of volume he’ll see as a receiver in this particular matchup, he’s almost a no-brainer type start.
DEFENSIVE STACKS
Arizona Cardinals ($5,300) + David Johnson ($8,700) = $14,000
The Cardinals get the Los Angeles Rams at home in Week 4 in a critical NFC West showdown. The Cardinals have been up and down this year, but they should run away with this game on Sunday as they are favored by 9 points. Rams quarterback Case Keenum has thrown two touchdowns to go with three interceptions through three weeks and the Cardinals defense has a chance to make plays in this game. The likeliest script calls for a very heavy dose of Johnson in both the rushing and passing game, with the Cardinals being up and running out clock late in this game.
New England Patriots ($4,500) + LeGarrette Blount ($7,500) = $12,000
The Patriots get the Buffalo Bills at home in Week 4. The Patriots are still without quarterback Tom Brady, and there is still an unknown as to who will start for them at this point. Regardless of the starting quarterback, look for the Patriots to play a conservative game that relies heavily on the rushing attack which will be led by Blount. The Bills are struggling to throw the ball on offense as star receiver Sammy Watkins has been severely hampered by a foot injury and they’ll struggle to keep pace in this contest. Look for the Patriots defense to capitalize and force a few turnovers in this game.
